The first phase of the Bihar assembly election 2025, held on Thursday, witnessed a significantly high voter turnout of 64.41%. The spike has sparked speculation about which side will benefit. Muzaffarpur recorded the highest vote share at 71.03%, while the capital, Patna, recorded the lowest at 57.93%. The first phase has captured the fate of 1314 candidates contesting in 121 of the 243 assembly constituencies across 18 districts.
While the primary battle is between the National Democratic Alliance and the Mahagathbandhan, the influence of smaller parties could introduce unpredictability into the election. The new entrant, Jan Swaraj, led by poll strategist Prashant Kishore, and the AIMIM, led by Hyderabad MP Assaduddin Owaisi, could disrupt the equations on some seats, making the election even more intriguing.
In a departure from tradition, the NDA has chosen not to announce its Chief Ministerial candidate, leaving the decision to the elected legislators after the election. This marks a significant shift in the two-decade-long partnership between the Bhartiya Janata Party and Janata Dal United, as it’s the first time they are contesting without declaring Nitish Kumar as their CM face.
This has triggered a debate: the BJP doesn’t want to carry it forward with Nitish at the helm and wants its own chief minister this time. Many political pundits believe that this decision may backfire.
The BJP has fielded its top brass in the election campaign, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, J P Nadda, Rajnath Singh, and Home Minister Amit Shah, along with the Chief Ministers of New Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, and Maharashtra. The NDA hopes to gain the backing of women voters after launching the Chief Minister’s Women Employment Scheme. Initially, a direct cash transfer of Rs 10000 has been sent under this scheme to the bank accounts of 75 lakh Women.
On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav is the CM face of Mahaghathbandhan. The RJD leader has proven his leadership skills during the last assembly election, when he spearheaded a successful campaign that narrowly missed the magic number to form the government. Once again, he has been drawing huge crowds as he focuses on unemployment and migration in his public addresses, promising to give a government job to a member of every family in the state.
Many political observers believe that, despite the intense fight over seat sharing, the Mahagathbandhan managed to put up better candidates in terms of caste equations and winnability. This may be a decisive factor in several seats. According to ground reports, many traditional BJP seats are witnessing a neck-and-neck fight in this election.
According to Afzal Khan, a political Analyst based in Siwan, “The high turnout indicates a verdict of change. According to my ground assessment, Mahagathbandhan is performing well in many seats held by the NDA in the last election, especially in Siwan, Gopalganj, and Chapra, and to a lesser extent in East and West Champaran. This may alter the prospects of the ruling alliance.”
However, Patna-based political Analyst Satya Narayan Madan disagreed. He said it is too early to give a verdict midway, especially with unverified ground reports. He points out that the Mahaghatbandhan needs a significant addition to its vote bank to defeat the NDA. Without knowing which social groups, in a substantial number, have deserted the NDA and aligned with the Mahaghathbandhan, it will be an erroneous observation, Satya Narayan Madan said.
Therefore, while the full picture of the Assembly Election 2025 will emerge in the coming days, the high turnout could signal a changing political landscape in Bihar.
( Shams Khan is Patna-based political analyst. The views are personal.)
